How Will the “COVID Years” Change How We Travel?

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected every part of our lives, including how we get from place to place, whether locally or globally. Many of the health, economic, and social policy challenges we face in 2020, an unprecedented year, will undoubtedly extend for years to come.

Looking at transportation data and studying how, when, where, 在我们走向未来的过程中，我们出行的原因将为制定交通政策提供解决方案，以满足“新常态”的需求.“由于COVID-19，旅行模式可能会发生长期变化。,” notes James Jenness, Ph.D., 韦斯特交通中心人因研究副主任兼经理, Technology & Safety Research.

“公众希望旅行时减少人与人之间的互动, something that may continue for a long time. Tools like large-scale field studies, observational studies, 家庭旅行调查可以帮助评估我们在短期内的状况，以及我们如何度过这场危机并继续前进,” notes Dr. Jenness. “These studies can be done locally, regionally, even nationally, coupled with stringent statistical analysis and evaluation.“这项研究将让资源紧张的地区了解旅游的新常态, 帮助政策制定者在预算紧缩的范围内找到解决方案, 提高资源效率和效率，同时加强旅游市民的安全.

How We Travel

Public transportation—buses, light rail, 地铁将继续面临挑战，因为它们仍在运行，但客流量却大幅减少, 增加清洁和消毒所需的额外运营费用. Will transit riders be willing to wear masks? Travel at nonpeak times? Feel confident about protocols for increased cleaning? “我们将面临恢复公众对公共交通信心的挑战。. Jenness. “有选择的人可能更喜欢自己车的神圣性, like a safety bubble, 在一些城市，我们看到人们寻找和使用其他交通方式，比如自行车和电动自行车，这样可以保持一定程度的社交距离. For longer trips, where air travel used to be the norm, we may see more people choosing to drive themselves. 目前的低油价也使这种做法具有吸引力.”

在这里，这些问题的答案再次依赖于研究. 像在线调查这样可以深入了解公众舒适度的工具将是关键. 智能手机应用程序可以收集并提供最新旅行和实时活动的调查数据. 地方和州一级的家庭旅行调查可以建立旅行需求和预测模型, as well as transportation planning activities. 这些调查可以收集详细的社会人口统计数据和详细的旅行行为数据, 准确指出特别关注的领域，以及旅行活动和行为如何随时间变化.

Travelers’ Behavior

尽管由于大多数州的居家令，州际公路和地区道路上的车辆减少了, traffic safety has become a major problem. Crashes are down, but the ones that occur are more severe. “Speeding, driving aggressively, and increased risk-taking are the most common reasons,” notes Jeremiah Singer, a 趣赢平台 research associate. “由于道路基本空旷，人们有机会超速行驶,” he explains, “但超速水平已经成为一个严重的问题, 人们经常以每小时100英里以上的速度被罚款.”

Mr. Singer has done extensive research on driver behavior, distraction, attention, and opinions in on-road, closed-course, as well as laboratory research. “People are stressed,” he notes. “People are stressed by personal health issues, personal economic issues, and add to it the stay-at-home orders and, now, stay-at-home fatigue. 研究这些影响是如何对司机的行为产生影响的，这将是很重要的.研究人员可以利用有关超速和其他违规行为的公开数据，以清楚地了解道路上的实际情况. 跟进有关行为的在线调查将提供重要的见解.

司机的行为也会影响到行人. 越来越多的人选择步行或骑自行车，而不是乘坐公共交通工具接触病毒. The combination of more people walking and biking, plus the increase in drivers speeding, well, it’s a recipe for big problems. “Pedestrian and vehicle interaction,” notes Mr. 可能会导致更严重的事故，更多的死亡. Observational field studies, on-road studies, lab studies, online focus groups, and interviews will provide answers to what is going on.”

我们提出的问题比我们能回答的要多，但数据将为我们指明通往这些答案的道路. These “COVID-19 years” cannot compare to previous data. There are no apples-to-apples comparisons here. Federal, state, 地方政府和商业部门将受益于依靠交通研究的工具，在“新常态”中找到一条新的道路.”